Where and when is Marbella vs Estepona played?

Marbella vs Estepona is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Antonio Lorenzo Cuevas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Marbella vs Estepona: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 7Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Antonio Lorenzo Cuevas, Marbella

Marbella

Estepona

The Footlab model makes Estepona the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marbella vs Estepona?

Estepona starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,799).

Marbella win34 %

Draw30 %

Estepona win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbella have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Estepona have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marbella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 22, 2026	Teruel(home)	3-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 16, 2026	Alcorcon(away)	2-6	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 10, 2026	Juventud Torremolinos(home)	0-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 3, 2026	Eldense(away)	1-3	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Sabadell(home)	0-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Estepona
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	Real Madrid III(home)	3-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Real Madrid III(away)	2-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Yeclano(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Águilas(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026	Linares Deportivo(away)	3-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Marbella win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Estepona win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 4, 2024	Marbella 0-0 Estepona	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 24, 2023	Estepona 0-1 Marbella	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Marbella vs Estepona on Feb 4, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Marbella score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Estepona score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Marbella	1.5	1.8	3	7/15	7/15
Estepona	1.7	0.9	4	10/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Estepona	34	12	8	14	40	44	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marbella vs Estepona?: The Footlab model makes Estepona the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Marbella.
Where and when is Marbella vs Estepona played?: Marbella vs Estepona is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Antonio Lorenzo Cuevas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.