Match

Xerez vs Marbella: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera

XerezMarbella

The Footlab AI model makes Xerez the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Xerez vs Marbella?

Xerez starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,721).

58%26%16%
Xerez winDrawMarbella win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Xerez vs Marbella

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Xerez

Not enough data to predict the Xerez lineup.

Marbella

4-3-3
  1. 20J. Cambra
  2. 17Alexiel
  3. 19E. Ohemeng
  1. 8Eugeni Valderrama
  2. 16A. Ruiz
  3. 10A. Gil
  1. 22J. Rodriguez
  2. 23Alberto Escassi
  3. 2J. Alvarez
  4. 3Álex Martínez
  1. 1Manu García

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:11 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xerez have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Marbella have 3, 2 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Xerez
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Real Betis II(away)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 4, 2026Tenerife II(home)2-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Recreativo Huelva(away)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 20, 2026Don Benito(home)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 13, 2026Badajoz(home)1-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Marbella
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Badajoz(away)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 4, 2026Real Betis II(home)0-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Puente Genil(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 20, 2026Atlético Central(home)4-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 13, 2026Sevilla Atletico(away)0-3Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Xerez score 0.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Marbella score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Xerez0.50.684/152/15
Marbella1.21.926/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Xerez sit 13th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 6 matches) and Marbella sit 15th (5 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Xerez6132456
15Marbella6123695

A question about Xerez vs Marbella?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Xerez vs Marbella?
The Footlab AI model makes Xerez the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Marbella.
Where and when is Xerez vs Marbella played?
Xerez vs Marbella is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Xerez and Marbella

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