Where and when is York United vs Cavalry FC played?

York United vs Cavalry FC is played on October 3, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

York United vs Cavalry FC: prediction and stats

Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)York Lions Stadium, Toronto, Ontario

York United

Cavalry FC

The Footlab model makes Cavalry FC the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for York United. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win York United vs Cavalry FC?

Cavalry FC starts as the favourite with a 239-point Elo edge (1,882 vs 1,643).

York United win19 %

Draw22 %

Cavalry FC win59 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Cavalry FC have 10, 3 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

York United
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Supra du Quebec(home)	1-1	Canadian Premier League
Aug 16, 2026	HFX Wanderers FC(home)	4-3	Canadian Premier League
Aug 8, 2026	Pacific FC(away)	1-1	Canadian Premier League
Aug 2, 2026	Cavalry FC(away)	0-5	Canadian Premier League
Jul 26, 2026	Forge(home)	1-3	Canadian Premier League

Cavalry FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Atlético Ottawa(home)	3-1	Canadian Premier League
Aug 15, 2026	Forge(home)	2-1	Canadian Premier League
Aug 9, 2026	Supra du Quebec(away)	1-1	Canadian Premier League
Aug 2, 2026	York United(home)	5-0	Canadian Premier League
Jul 29, 2026	Supra du Quebec(home)	2-1	Canadian Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 York United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Cavalry FC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 2, 2026	Cavalry FC 5-0 York United	Canadian Premier League
Jun 10, 2026	York United 1-5 Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
Apr 25, 2026	Cavalry FC 1-1 York United	Canadian Premier League
Oct 26, 2025	Cavalry FC 4-1 York United	Canadian Premier League
Sep 5, 2025	York United 3-1 Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
Jul 26, 2025	Cavalry FC 0-1 York United	Canadian Premier League

Last archived meeting: Cavalry FC vs York United on Aug 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

York United score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cavalry FC score 2.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
York United	1.2	2.3	1	11/15	8/15
Cavalry FC	2.3	0.7	5	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

York United sit 7th in Canadian Premier League (17 points from 15 matches) and Cavalry FC sit 2nd (40 points from 18 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Cavalry FC	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
7	York United	15	4	5	6	20	34	17

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for York United vs Cavalry FC?: The Footlab model makes Cavalry FC the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for York United.
Where and when is York United vs Cavalry FC played?: York United vs Cavalry FC is played on October 3, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.