York vs Oldham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 38Kick-off on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Oldham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Oldham?
York starts as the favourite with a 203-point Elo edge (1,983 vs 1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Oldham have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 York win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Oldham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2025 | York 0-3 Oldham | National League |
| Apr 21, 2025 | York 1-1 Oldham | National League |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Oldham 0-2 York | National League |
| Feb 20, 2024 | York 1-1 Oldham | National League |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Oldham 2-0 York | National League |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Oldham 2-0 York | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Oldham score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Oldham | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Oldham sit 12th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Oldham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Oldham?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Oldham.
- Where and when is York vs Oldham played?
- York vs Oldham is played on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.