Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Grbavica, Sarajevo
The Footlab model makes Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Čelik. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (1,592) and Čelik (1,499).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Čelik have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zrinjski(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(home) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sloboda Tuzla(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karpaty(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 25, 2026 | FK Sarajevo(away) | 0-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg(home) | 1-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zrinjski(away) | 1-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Jun 6, 2026 | GOŠK Gabela(away) | 1-1 | 1st League - FBiH |
| May 31, 2026 | Igman Konjic(home) | 4-0 | 1st League - FBiH |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Čelik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2019 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-0 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Čelik 0-2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| May 18, 2019 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-2 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 5, 2018 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-2 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 29, 2018 | Čelik 1-0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| Mar 7, 2018 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-1 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
Last archived meeting: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik on Nov 3, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Čelik score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Čelik | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo sit 6th in Premijer Liga (3 points from 2 matches) and Čelik sit 10th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Čelik | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
- The Footlab model makes Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Čelik.
- Where and when is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik played?
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Grbavica, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.