Zrinjski vs Velež: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bijeli Brijeg, Mostar
The Footlab model makes Zrinjski the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Velež. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zrinjski vs Velež?
Zrinjski starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,810 vs 1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zrinjski have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Velež have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(away) | 5-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Čelik(home) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Valur Reykjavik(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Valur Reykjavik(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 1-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Zrinjski win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Velež win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | Zrinjski 3-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| May 13, 2026 | Velež 1-1 Zrinjski | Cup |
| May 6, 2026 | Zrinjski 1-0 Velež | Cup |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Velež 0-1 Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Zrinjski 1-1 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Velež 1-3 Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Zrinjski score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Velež score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zrinjski | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Velež | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zrinjski sit 1st in Premijer Liga (9 points from 3 matches) and Velež sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Velež | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zrinjski vs Velež?
- The Footlab model makes Zrinjski the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Velež.
- Where and when is Zrinjski vs Velež played?
- Zrinjski vs Velež is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.