Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Grbavica, Sarajevo
The Footlab model makes Velež the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (1,598) and Velež (1,646).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Velež have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zrinjski(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(home) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sloboda Tuzla(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karpaty(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 25, 2026 | FK Sarajevo(away) | 0-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 1-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Velež win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Velež 1-0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1-2 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Velež 0-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| May 25, 2025 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 Velež | Premijer Liga |
Last archived meeting: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Velež score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Velež | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo sit 6th in Premijer Liga (3 points from 2 matches) and Velež sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Velež | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež?
- The Footlab model makes Velež the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- Where and when is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež played?
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Grbavica, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.