Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Zorya Luhansk the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
Zorya Luhansk starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zorya Luhansk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Chornomorets have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Skala 1911 Stryi(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Polessya(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polessya(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nyva Vinnytsya(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Zorya Luhansk win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chornomorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Chornomorets 2-1 Zorya Luhansk | Cup |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Chornomorets 0-1 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Zorya Luhansk 1-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Chornomorets 4-1 Zorya Luhansk | Cup |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Chornomorets 0-0 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Chornomorets vs Zorya Luhansk on Aug 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Zorya Luhansk score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chornomorets score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zorya Luhansk | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Chornomorets | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zorya Luhansk sit 3rd in Premier League (6 points from 3 matches) and Chornomorets sit 15th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zorya Luhansk | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets?
- The Footlab model makes Zorya Luhansk the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets played?
- Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.