Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Metalist 1925 Kharkiv the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Zorya Luhansk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Zorya Luhansk (1,842) and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (1,852).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zorya Luhansk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Skala 1911 Stryi(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Polessya(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Polessya(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Livyi Bereh(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Zorya Luhansk win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk 1-1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-3 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2-1 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| May 8, 2023 | Zorya Luhansk 3-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2022 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-3 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zorya Luhansk score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Metalist 1925 Kharkiv score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zorya Luhansk | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zorya Luhansk sit 3rd in Premier League (6 points from 3 matches) and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zorya Luhansk | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv?
- The Footlab model makes Metalist 1925 Kharkiv the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Zorya Luhansk.
- Where and when is Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv played?
- Zorya Luhansk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.