Aalborg vs Esbjerg: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg
The Footlab model makes Aalborg the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Esbjerg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aalborg vs Esbjerg?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Aalborg (1,818) and Esbjerg (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aalborg have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Esbjerg have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hobro(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Fredericia(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kolding IF(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Holstebro(away) | 3-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Aarhus Fremad(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vejle(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hobro(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hvidovre(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogense(away) | 6-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aalborg win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Esbjerg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aalborg 1-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Esbjerg 1-0 Aalborg | 1. Division |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Esbjerg 0-2 Aalborg | DBU Pokalen |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Aalborg 0-0 Esbjerg | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 19, 2020 | Esbjerg 2-1 Aalborg | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2020 | Esbjerg 1-1 Aalborg | Superliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Aalborg score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Esbjerg score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Esbjerg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aalborg sit 6th in 1. Division (7 points from 5 matches) and Esbjerg sit 9th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aalborg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Esbjerg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aalborg vs Esbjerg?
- The Footlab model makes Aalborg the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Esbjerg.
- Where and when is Aalborg vs Esbjerg played?
- Aalborg vs Esbjerg is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Aalborg Portland Park, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.