Aarhus vs Lech Poznan: result 1-4 and analysis
UEFA Champions League2nd Qualifying RoundKick-off on July 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ceres Park & Arena, Århus
Full time
What was the result of Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan won 1-4 on July 21, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 29′M. IshakLech Poznan
- 42′P. WålemarkLech Poznan
- 55′K. ArnstadAarhus
- 61′T. YegbeLech Poznan
- 65′P. WålemarkLech Poznan
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab model gave a Aarhus win at 42%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 1-1 — actual score: 1-4.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aarhus have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Lech Poznan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | AC Horsens(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Viborg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Viborg(home) | 6-2 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 3-1 | Super Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Bohemians 1905(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Podbrezová(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Wisla Plock(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| May 16, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
How many goals should we expect?
Aarhus score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.3 and concede 1.0.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
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