Abha vs Al-Nassr: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 18, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha
The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Abha. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Abha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr is a heavy favourite: 2,133 Elo points against 1,786 — a 346-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Abha have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Al-Nassr have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 0-4 | Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Orubah(away) | 0-0 | King's Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Al-Hazm(home) | 1-2 | Pro League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Sharjah FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 4-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al Diriyah(away) | 4-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Fateh(home) | 3-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Almeria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Abha win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Al-Nassr win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | Abha 0-8 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Al-Nassr 2-2 Abha | Pro League |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha | Pro League |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Al-Nassr 3-1 Abha | King's Cup |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Abha 0-3 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha | Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Abha score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Nassr score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Al-Nassr | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Abha sit 17th in Pro League (0 points from 2 matches) and Al-Nassr sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 17 | Abha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Abha vs Al-Nassr?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Abha.
- Where and when is Abha vs Al-Nassr played?
- Abha vs Al-Nassr is played on March 18, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.