AC Milan vs Monza: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Monza?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 186-point Elo edge (2,065 vs 1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AC Milan vs Monza
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AC Milan
3-4-2-1- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 12A. Rabiot
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 70A. Cissè
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Monza
3-4-2-1- 9Gustavo Varela
- 7Ricardo Mangas
- 19S. Birindelli
- 14E. Akinsanmiro
- 90M. Folorunsho
- 16C. Ngonge
- 22E. Zeballos
- 3L. Lucchesi
- 60E. Kouadio
- 44A. Carboni
- 1N. Törnqvist
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Monza have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 AC Milan wins, 0 draws, 1 Monza win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | AC Milan 2-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Monza 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2024 | AC Milan 3-1 Monza | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Monza 4-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 17, 2023 | AC Milan 3-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Monza 1-2 AC Milan | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Monza score 1.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Monza | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 5th in Serie A (12 points from 6 matches) and Monza sit 16th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4 |
A question about AC Milan vs Monza?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Monza?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Monza.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Monza played?
- AC Milan vs Monza is played on April 4, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.