Fiorentina vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,997 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (2,231 vs 2,076).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 25A. Njie
- 28Pote
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 33Viery
- 5M. Pongračić
- 43David de Gea
AC Milan
3-4-3- 12A. Rabiot
- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 11C. Pulišić
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 14L. Modrić
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; AC Milan have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fiorentina win, 2 draws, 3 AC Milan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 5, 2025 | AC Milan 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | AC Milan 1-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fiorentina vs AC Milan on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fiorentina sit 18th in Serie A (4 points from 7 matches) and AC Milan sit 4th (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is Fiorentina vs AC Milan played?
- Fiorentina vs AC Milan is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.