Accrington ST vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Accrington ST the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Accrington ST (1,672) and Gillingham (1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Accrington ST have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Accrington ST win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Accrington ST 1-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Accrington ST 1-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Gillingham 1-2 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Accrington ST 1-2 Gillingham | League Two |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Gillingham 1-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Accrington ST on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Accrington ST sit 19th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Accrington ST the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Accrington ST vs Gillingham played?
- Accrington ST vs Gillingham is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Wham Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.