Crewe vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab AI model makes Crewe the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Rochdale. The most likely score is 1-1. If Crewe wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Rochdale?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Crewe (1,882) and Rochdale (1,930).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Crewe vs Rochdale
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Crewe
4-2-3-1- 29A. Thibaut
- 10J. White
- 9J. March
- 11J. Tabiner
- 14J. Gibson
- 19O. Lunt
- 6L. Offord
- 2L. Billington
- 12J. Stephenson
- 4Kyle Ure
- 1T. Booth
Rochdale
4-2-3-1- 39D. Brown
- 17B. Adeeko
- 8H. Gilmour
- 21Kane Taylor
- 45G. Middleton
- 7C. Hayes
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 2C. Tasker
- 44A. Flint
- 13O. Adebayo-Rowling
- 1Nils Ramming
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat; Rochdale have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Aston Villa U21(home) | 4-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-5 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Liverpool U21(home) | 3-3 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Crewe wins, 4 draws, 0 Rochdale wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | Crewe 1-1 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Rochdale 1-2 Crewe | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Crewe 1-1 Rochdale | League One |
| Jan 9, 2021 | Rochdale 3-3 Crewe | League One |
| Feb 16, 2016 | Rochdale 2-2 Crewe | League One |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Crewe 2-0 Rochdale | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 3rd in League Two (18 points from 10 matches) and Rochdale sit 10th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
A question about Crewe vs Rochdale?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab AI model makes Crewe the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Rochdale.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Rochdale played?
- Crewe vs Rochdale is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.