Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Shrewsbury. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers?
Bristol Rovers starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shrewsbury have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Shrewsbury win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Shrewsbury 0-3 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Shrewsbury 0-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Bristol Rovers 0-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Shrewsbury 0-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Shrewsbury on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shrewsbury sit 24th in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Shrewsbury.
- Where and when is Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Croud Meadow, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.