Accrington ST vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Accrington ST the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Accrington ST vs Newport County?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Accrington ST (1,676) and Newport County (1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Accrington ST have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Accrington ST win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Newport County 1-4 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Accrington ST 0-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Accrington ST 5-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Newport County 3-1 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Newport County 1-3 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Accrington ST 3-0 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Accrington ST on Jan 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Accrington ST sit 19th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Accrington ST vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes Accrington ST the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Accrington ST vs Newport County played?
- Accrington ST vs Newport County is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Wham Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.