Exeter City vs Tranmere: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Tranmere. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Tranmere?
Exeter City starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,766 vs 1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Tranmere have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Exeter City win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Tranmere win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | Tranmere 2-0 Exeter City | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Exeter City 0-1 Tranmere | League Two |
| Mar 20, 2021 | Tranmere 2-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Dec 12, 2020 | Exeter City 5-0 Tranmere | League Two |
| Mar 2, 2019 | Exeter City 0-1 Tranmere | League Two |
| Nov 3, 2018 | Tranmere 2-0 Exeter City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Tranmere vs Exeter City on Apr 18, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tranmere score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tranmere | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 13th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Tranmere sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Tranmere?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Tranmere.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Tranmere played?
- Exeter City vs Tranmere is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.