Colchester vs Cheltenham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colchester vs Cheltenham?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Colchester (1,763) and Cheltenham (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colchester have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cheltenham have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Colchester win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Cheltenham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Cheltenham 1-4 Colchester | League Two |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Colchester 2-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Cheltenham 0-1 Colchester | League Two |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Cheltenham 2-1 Colchester | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Colchester 1-2 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Cheltenham 1-0 Colchester | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Cheltenham vs Colchester on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colchester sit 5th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Cheltenham sit 14th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colchester vs Cheltenham?
- The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Colchester vs Cheltenham played?
- Colchester vs Cheltenham is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at JobServe Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.