Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers?
Bristol Rovers starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,754 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gillingham have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gillingham win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Gillingham 1-2 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Feb 20, 2021 | Gillingham 2-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Dec 2, 2020 | Bristol Rovers 0-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Bristol Rovers 1-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Mar 12, 2019 | Gillingham 0-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gillingham sit 21st in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Priestfield Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.