Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC)Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Adelaide United (1,805) and Melbourne Victory (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adelaide United have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Adelaide United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Melbourne Victory win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Adelaide United 2-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 5-3 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Adelaide United 3-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United | Australia Cup |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adelaide United sit 2nd in A-League (43 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory is played on November 8, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at Coopers Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.