Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Footlab model makes Auckland the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
Auckland starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,925 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auckland have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-0 | A-League |
| May 15, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 2, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Auckland win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 0-5 Auckland | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Auckland 3-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Auckland | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Auckland 6-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Auckland 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Auckland | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auckland score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auckland sit 3rd in A-League (42 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auckland | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 42 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Auckland the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Go Media Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.