Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Footlab AI model makes Auckland the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1. If Auckland wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Auckland (1,844) and Wellington Phoenix (1,769).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Auckland
4-4-2- 10L. Bayliss
- 9S. Cosgrove
- 27L. Rogerson
- 77L. Brook
- 22J. Brimmer
- 8F. Gallegos
- 2H. Sakai
- 4N. Pijnaker
- 15F. de Vries
- 25L. Vicelich
- 1M. Woud
Known absences
A. CalverOut · Ankle injury
C. HowiesonOut · Calf injury- O. MiddletonOut · Knee injury
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 99C. Piper
- 9R. Durán
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8M. Anderson
- 7B. Duke
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 27M. Sheridan
- 23J. McGarry
- 13H. Gray
Known absences
- F. ConchieOut · Not in squad
- I. HughesOut · Not in squad
- J. SmithOut · Not in squad
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 05:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auckland have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-5 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 3-1 | A-League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 0-1 | FIFA Intercontinental Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Auckland wins, 0 draws, 0 Wellington Phoenix wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 0-5 Auckland | A-League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Auckland 3-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Auckland | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Auckland 6-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Auckland 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Auckland | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auckland score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auckland sit 6th in A-League (4 points from 3 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Auckland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
A question about Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab AI model makes Auckland the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Go Media Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.