Auckland vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Auckland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,829 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Auckland (1,832) and Melbourne Victory (1,885).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Auckland vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Auckland
4-4-2- 10L. Bayliss
- 9S. Cosgrove
- 27L. Rogerson
- 77L. Brook
- 22J. Brimmer
- 8F. Gallegos
- 2H. Sakai
- 4N. Pijnaker
- 15F. de Vries
- 25L. Vicelich
- 1M. Woud
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 10D. Genreau
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 21G. May
- 4P. Ziereis
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 36H. Shillington
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 12:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auckland have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-5 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 3-1 | A-League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 0-1 | FIFA Intercontinental Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Auckland wins, 3 draws, 1 Melbourne Victory win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Auckland 2-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-0 Auckland | A-League |
| May 24, 2025 | Auckland 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 17, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Auckland | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-2 Auckland | A-League |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Auckland 0-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Auckland vs Melbourne Victory on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auckland score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auckland sit 6th in A-League (3 points from 2 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 8th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auckland vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Auckland.
- Where and when is Auckland vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Auckland vs Melbourne Victory is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Go Media Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.