AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Apollon Limassol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate AEK Larnaca (2,011) and Apollon Limassol (1,955).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Apollon Limassol have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Brann(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Brann(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Dila(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dila(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AEK Larnaca win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Apollon Limassol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol 0-0 AEK Larnaca | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 6, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 1-0 Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Apollon Limassol 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Feb 14, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 0-1 Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Apollon Limassol 1-2 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| May 12, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 3-0 Apollon Limassol | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca on Jul 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Apollon Limassol score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Apollon Limassol | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and Apollon Limassol sit 3rd (67 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 3 | Apollon Limassol | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 41 | 67 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Apollon Limassol.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.