AEK Larnaca vs Aris: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aris. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Aris?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (2,048 vs 1,927).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AEK Larnaca vs Aris
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1- 11R. Bajić
- 14A. Layouni
- 7Gus Ledes
- 20J. Repas
- 9Đ. Ivanović
- 6I. Pankov
- 15H. Miličević
- 3M. van der Hoorn
- 17K. Pileas
- 23S. Köhler
- 92A. Paleari
Aris
4-2-3-1- 11R. Effaghe
- 29D. Gaustad
- 30Gustavo Pajé
- 70C. El Allachi
- 8C. Charalampous
- 22V. Nikolić
- 27J. Badelj
- 7Anderson Correia
- 17M. Matysik
- 20S. Yago
- 91M. Zadro
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Aris have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ethnikos Achna(home) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Olympiakos(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Karmiotissa(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AEK Larnaca wins, 1 draw, 2 Aris wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Aris 3-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 3-2 Aris | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Mar 29, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Aris | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aris score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aris | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 1st in 1. Division (12 points from 5 matches) and Aris sit 6th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
A question about AEK Larnaca vs Aris?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Aris?
- The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Aris.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Aris played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Aris is played on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.