AEK Larnaca vs Aris: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Aris. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Aris?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate AEK Larnaca (2,011) and Aris (1,912).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Aris have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Union Berlin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Atromitos(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 22, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| May 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AEK Larnaca win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aris win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Aris 3-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 3-2 Aris | 1. Division |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Aris 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Mar 29, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Aris | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aris score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Aris | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and Aris sit 6th (51 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 6 | Aris | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 61 | 45 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Aris?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Aris.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Aris played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Aris is played on January 16, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.