Aris vs AEL: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab AI model makes Aris the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for AEL. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aris wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,516 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aris vs AEL?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Aris (1,927) and AEL (1,839).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aris vs AEL
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aris
4-2-3-1- 11R. Effaghe
- 29D. Gaustad
- 30Gustavo Pajé
- 70C. El Allachi
- 8C. Charalampous
- 22V. Nikolić
- 27J. Badelj
- 7Anderson Correia
- 17M. Matysik
- 20S. Yago
- 91M. Zadro
AEL
4-2-3-1- 77F. Mughe
- 11L. Singh
- 20João Tavares
- 30G. Papageorgiou
- 6D. Zdravkovski
- 19I. Milosavljević
- 23Diogo Gomes
- 33E. Antoniou
- 22K. Neofytou
- 35Sérgio Conceição
- 1S. Kapino
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 05:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aris have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; AEL have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ethnikos Achna(home) | 4-0 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Olympiakos(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Karmiotissa(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(away) | 0-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Aris wins, 0 draws, 2 AEL wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | AEL 2-1 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Aris 0-1 AEL | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Nov 24, 2024 | AEL 0-3 Aris | 1. Division |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Aris score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AEL score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| AEL | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aris sit 6th in 1. Division (8 points from 5 matches) and AEL sit 2nd (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
A question about Aris vs AEL?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aris vs AEL?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aris the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for AEL.
- Where and when is Aris vs AEL played?
- Aris vs AEL is played on January 23, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.