AFC Emley vs Alfreton Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Welfare Ground, Emley, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes AFC Emley the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Alfreton Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Emley vs Alfreton Town?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate AFC Emley (1,724) and Alfreton Town (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Emley have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Alfreton Town have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ashton United(home) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leek Town(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avro(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 AFC Emley win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Alfreton Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2023 | Alfreton Town 1-0 AFC Emley | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Alfreton Town vs AFC Emley on Sep 30, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Emley score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alfreton Town score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Emley | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Alfreton Town | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Emley sit 10th in Non League Premier - Northern (9 points from 6 matches) and Alfreton Town sit 9th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Alfreton Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | AFC Emley | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Emley vs Alfreton Town?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Emley the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Alfreton Town.
- Where and when is AFC Emley vs Alfreton Town played?
- AFC Emley vs Alfreton Town is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Welfare Ground, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 10, 2027Guiseley AFCvsRedcar Athletic
- Apr 10, 2027Hyde UnitedvsIlkeston Town
- Apr 10, 2027Leek TownvsCurzon Ashton
- Apr 10, 2027WorkingtonvsBury
- Apr 10, 2027Bamber BridgevsGainsborough Trinity
- Apr 10, 2027Lancaster CityvsUnited of Manchester
- Apr 10, 2027AvrovsCleethorpes Town
- Apr 10, 2027QuornvsWarrington Town