AFC Telford United vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 38Kick-off on March 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)New Bucks Head Ground, Telford, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes AFC Telford United the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Telford United vs Merthyr Town?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate AFC Telford United (1,859) and Merthyr Town (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Telford United have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brackley Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 AFC Telford United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Merthyr Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Merthyr Town 2-2 AFC Telford United | National League - North |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-4 AFC Telford United | National League - North |
| Nov 4, 2025 | AFC Telford United 2-4 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United on Aug 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Telford United score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Telford United | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Telford United sit 22nd in National League - North (2 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Telford United vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Telford United the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is AFC Telford United vs Merthyr Town played?
- AFC Telford United vs Merthyr Town is played on March 9, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at New Bucks Head Ground, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.