AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 6Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet?
Barnet starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Barnet have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 5-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AFC Wimbledon win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Barnet win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2024 | Barnet 2-0 AFC Wimbledon | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 29, 2017 | Barnet 3-4 AFC Wimbledon | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 20, 2016 | Barnet 1-2 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2015 | AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Barnet | League Two |
| Apr 1, 2013 | AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Barnet | League Two |
| Dec 8, 2012 | Barnet 1-1 AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Barnet vs AFC Wimbledon on Aug 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Barnet score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Barnet | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (6 points from 3 matches) and Barnet sit 3rd (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AFC Wimbledon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Barnet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet?
- The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.