AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 6Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes AFC Wimbledon the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Arsenal U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate AFC Wimbledon (1,732) and Arsenal U21 (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Wimbledon have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Arsenal U21 have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crystal Palace U21(home) | 1-1 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 1-5 | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Manchester City U21(away) | 1-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Crystal Palace U21(away) | 0-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 4, 2026 | West Bromwich Albion U21(home) | 1-0 | Premier League 2 Division One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 AFC Wimbledon win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Arsenal U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2020 | AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Arsenal U21 | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 on Dec 8, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal U21 score 1.2 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Arsenal U21 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Wimbledon sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (6 points from 3 matches) and Arsenal U21 sit 4th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AFC Wimbledon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Arsenal U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Wimbledon the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Arsenal U21.
- Where and when is AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 played?
- AFC Wimbledon vs Arsenal U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.