Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 4Group 4 - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Agigea, Agigea
The Footlab model makes Sporting Lieşti the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Agigea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti?
Sporting Lieşti starts as the favourite with a 295-point Elo edge (1,596 vs 1,300).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Agigea have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Sporting Lieşti have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Axiopolis(home) | 2-3 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea(home) | 0-2 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| May 8, 2026 | FCSB II(away) | 0-3 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| May 1, 2026 | Dinamo Bucureşti II(home) | 1-1 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Voluntari II(away) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | USV Iaşi(away) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | CSM Adjud(away) | 4-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Unirea Braniştea(away) | 4-2 | Cupa României |
| May 23, 2026 | Stiinta Miroslava(away) | 3-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
How many goals should we expect?
Agigea score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Lieşti score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agigea | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sporting Lieşti | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Lieşti the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Agigea.
- Where and when is Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti played?
- Agigea vs Sporting Lieşti is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Agigea, in the Liga III - Serie 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.