Águilas II vs Alcantarilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Rubial, Águilas
The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Alcantarilla. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
Águilas II starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (1,820 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Águilas II have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Alcantarilla have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palmar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Unión Molinense(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 4, 2025 | Águilas II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Santomera(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Águilas II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Alcantarilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Alcantarilla 2-1 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Águilas II 5-0 Alcantarilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Alcantarilla vs Águilas II on May 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Águilas II score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alcantarilla score 0.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas II | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Alcantarilla | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Águilas II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
- The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Alcantarilla.
- Where and when is Águilas II vs Alcantarilla played?
- Águilas II vs Alcantarilla is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Rubial, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.