Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Limonar, Santomera
The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Santomera. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
UCAM Murcia II starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santomera have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; UCAM Murcia II have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cieza(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Águilas II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Santomera win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 UCAM Murcia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Santomera 2-4 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II 2-2 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Santomera 3-1 UCAM Murcia II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | UCAM Murcia II 5-0 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santomera score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; UCAM Murcia II score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santomera | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| UCAM Murcia II | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santomera sit 15th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (32 points from 34 matches) and UCAM Murcia II sit 6th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UCAM Murcia II | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 55 |
| 15 | Santomera | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 64 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
- The Footlab model makes UCAM Murcia II the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Santomera.
- Where and when is Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II played?
- Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Limonar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.