Ahal vs Paro: prediction and stats
AFC Challenge LeagueGroup StageKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Ahal Stadium, Abadan
The Footlab AI model makes Paro the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Ahal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paro wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ahal vs Paro?
Paro starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,608).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ahal vs Paro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ahal
3-5-2- 10E. Tagaýev
- 11S. Mirzoyev
- 5H. Bashimov
- 6N. Towakelow
- 30A. Abdyrahmanow
- 98D. Hojamammedov
- 70M. Berenov
- 3B. Gurgenov
- 21O. Orazov
- 4Beglimuhammet Bekmyradov
- 23K. Berdiyev
Paro
4-3-3- 66Nima Wangdi
- 25E. Asante
- 99T. Okereke Chimerie
- 40Yuta Suzuki
- 97R. Sagna
- 21M. Lama
- 4Goncalves Taygor
- 47K. Nurain
- 6Nima Tshering
- 11Kinley Wangchuk
- 1Gyeltshen Zangpo
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ahal have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Paro have 15, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aşgabat(away) | 4-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Şagadam(away) | 1-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Merw(home) | 4-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Thimphu City(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bhutan U19(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Transport United(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Ugyen Academy(away) | 10-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 22, 2026 | RTC(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ahal score 2.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Paro score 4.2 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahal | 2.4 | 1.2 | 7 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
| Paro | 4.2 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Ahal vs Paro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ahal vs Paro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paro the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Ahal.
- Where and when is Ahal vs Paro played?
- Ahal vs Paro is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Ahal Stadium, in the AFC Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.