Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Hollingsworth Group Stadium, Broughton, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes Airbus UK the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Airbus UK (1,911) and Caernarfon Town (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Airbus UK have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Airbus UK win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2023 | Caernarfon Town 4-0 Airbus UK | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2023 | Airbus UK 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2023 | Airbus UK 0-3 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2022 | Caernarfon Town 3-1 Airbus UK | Premier League |
| Dec 13, 2019 | Caernarfon Town 5-0 Airbus UK | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2019 | Airbus UK 2-3 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Airbus UK on Mar 31, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Airbus UK score 2.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus UK | 2.9 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Airbus UK sit 11th in Premier League (6 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Airbus UK | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Airbus UK the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Hollingsworth Group Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.