Ajax vs FC Thun: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeagueMatchday 4Kick-off on November 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs FC Thun?
Ajax is a heavy favourite: 2,225 Elo points against 1,868, a 357-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ajax vs FC Thun
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ajax
4-2-3-1- 99T. Arokodare
- 15Y. Baas
- 24J. Mokio
- 18D. Klaassen
- 10O. Gloukh
- 68A. Ouazane
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 36D. Janse
- 6T. Kehrer
- 1M. ter Stegen
FC Thun
4-4-2- 9F. Dursun
- 96B. Labeau
- 70N. Reichmuth
- 16J. Roth
- 14M. Käit
- 30N. Maier
- 19J. Bamert
- 2O. Mambwa
- 23M. Bürki
- 47F. Fehr
- 1N. Steffen
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; FC Thun have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Nov 5, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lausanne(away) | 5-4 | Super League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Lugano(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 3.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FC Thun score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| FC Thun | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 11th in UEFA Europa Conference League (6 points from 3 matches) and FC Thun sit 20th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
A question about Ajax vs FC Thun?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs FC Thun?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for FC Thun.
- Where and when is Ajax vs FC Thun played?
- Ajax vs FC Thun is played on November 26, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.