Akhmat vs FC Orenburg: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Akhmat Arena, Groznyi
The Footlab model makes Akhmat the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for FC Orenburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Akhmat (1,917) and FC Orenburg (1,845).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Akhmat have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; FC Orenburg have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 1-5 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Akhmat win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 FC Orenburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | Akhmat 1-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Akhmat 0-1 FC Orenburg | Cup |
| Aug 22, 2025 | FC Orenburg 2-2 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2025 | FC Orenburg 2-1 Akhmat | Cup |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Akhmat 1-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2024 | FC Orenburg 0-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Akhmat score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; FC Orenburg score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| FC Orenburg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Akhmat sit 10th in Premier League (5 points from 5 matches) and FC Orenburg sit 9th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
- The Footlab model makes Akhmat the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for FC Orenburg.
- Where and when is Akhmat vs FC Orenburg played?
- Akhmat vs FC Orenburg is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Akhmat Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.