CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)VEB Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for CSKA Moscow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate CSKA Moscow (2,015) and Spartak Moscow (2,100).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Moscow have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Spartak Moscow have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 CSKA Moscow win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Spartak Moscow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow | Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow | Premier League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | CSKA Moscow 3-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 1-2 CSKA Moscow | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | CSKA Moscow 0-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2024 | CSKA Moscow 0-0 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Moscow score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Moscow sit 3rd in Premier League (11 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Moscow sit 2nd (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for CSKA Moscow.
- Where and when is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow played?
- CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at VEB Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.