Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 13Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Aksakovo stadium, Aksakovo
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Aksakovo. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel?
Septemvri Tervel is a heavy favourite: 1,721 Elo points against 1,377, a 344-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aksakovo have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Septemvri Tervel have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Dragoevo(away) | 2-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Fratria II(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Aksakovo win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Septemvri Tervel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Aksakovo 2-5 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Septemvri Tervel 3-2 Aksakovo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 31, 2025 | Aksakovo 1-2 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 4-0 Aksakovo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aksakovo score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aksakovo | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aksakovo sit 14th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Tervel sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Aksakovo.
- Where and when is Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel played?
- Aksakovo vs Septemvri Tervel is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Aksakovo stadium, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.