Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 13Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sporten tsentar Ludogorets, Razgrad
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Ustrem Donchevo. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Ludogorets III is a heavy favourite: 1,756 Elo points against 1,441 — a 315-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ludogorets III have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Ludogorets III win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-3 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Ludogorets III 8-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 31, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-7 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Ludogorets III 2-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 19, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 0-2 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Ludogorets III 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Ludogorets III on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ludogorets III score 3.2 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets III | 3.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ludogorets III sit 5th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ludogorets III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Ustrem Donchevo.
- Where and when is Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.