Match

Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: prediction and stats

QSL CupGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on January 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha

Al-GharafaAl Ahli Doha

The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Al Ahli Doha. The most likely score is 1-1. If Al-Gharafa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,223 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Al-Gharafa (1,662) and Al Ahli Doha (1,650).

45%24%31%
Al-Gharafa winDrawAl Ahli Doha win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Al-Gharafa

4-2-3-1
  1. 9F. Magri
  1. 29F. Díaz
  2. 8Y. Brahimi
  3. 96A. Ounas
  4. 10I. Bennacer
  5. 13F. Sassi
  1. 18Ayoub Al Oui
  2. 4S. Sano
  3. 23Saifeldeen Hassan Fadlalla
  4. 6Dame Traoré
  1. 1Khalifa Ababacar

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1
  1. 10Erik Expósito
  1. 7J. Draxler
  2. 27B. Bourigeaud
  3. 77Ismaeel Mohammad
  4. 33D. Fettouhi
  5. 23N. Sliti
  1. 41Ahmed Reyed
  2. 88A. Amraoui
  3. 16R. Tihi
  4. 12Ghanem Al Minhali
  1. 13Mohamed Lingliz

Computed on October 24, 2026 at 06:06 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Al Ahli Doha have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Al-Gharafa
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 22, 2026Al Ahli Doha(home)2-2Stars League
Oct 18, 2026Al-Rayyan SC(home)0-0Stars League
Oct 12, 2026Esteghlal FC(home)1-2AFC Champions League Elite
Oct 8, 2026Al Wakrah(away)2-3Stars League
Oct 1, 2026Al Mesaimeer(home)4-2QSL Cup
Al Ahli Doha
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 22, 2026Al-Gharafa(away)2-2Stars League
Oct 16, 2026Al Wakrah(home)0-3Stars League
Oct 10, 2026Al-Sailiya(home)5-0Stars League
Sep 29, 2026Al-Markhiya(away)1-1QSL Cup
Sep 20, 2026Al Shahaniya(home)0-1QSL Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Gharafa wins, 1 draw, 2 Al Ahli Doha wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 22, 2026Al-Gharafa 2-2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Mar 18, 2026Al-Gharafa 1-4 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Oct 25, 2025Al Ahli Doha 1-3 Al-GharafaStars League
Jan 22, 2025Al-Gharafa 2-0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
Aug 18, 2024Al Ahli Doha 1-0 Al-GharafaStars League
May 8, 2024Al-Gharafa 4-3 Al Ahli DohaEmir Cup

Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha on Oct 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahli Doha score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Al-Gharafa1.51.7312/1512/15
Al Ahli Doha1.72.029/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
The Footlab AI model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Al Ahli Doha.
Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha played?
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha is played on January 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the QSL Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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