Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on December 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Al-Sailiya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa?
Al-Gharafa starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,723 vs 1,601).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Sailiya have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Al-Gharafa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al-Duhail SC(away) | 0-2 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sharjah FC(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(away) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Sailiya win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Al-Gharafa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Al-Sailiya 1-0 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 0-3 Al-Sailiya | QSL Cup |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 2-0 Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Al-Sailiya 3-1 Al-Gharafa | QFA Cup |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Al-Sailiya 1-2 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Aug 2, 2022 | Al-Gharafa 2-1 Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa on Feb 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Sailiya score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Sailiya | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Sailiya sit 12th in Stars League (0 points from 1 matches) and Al-Gharafa sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Al-Sailiya.
- Where and when is Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa played?
- Al-Sailiya vs Al-Gharafa is played on December 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.