Al-Karma vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Al Ramadi Stadium, Ar Ramādī (Ramadi)
The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Al-Karma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Karma vs Erbil?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Al-Karma (1,615) and Erbil (1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Karma have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Erbil have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shorta(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 14, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Al Karkh(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Al-Karma win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Erbil win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Al-Karma 2-3 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Erbil 2-1 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Al-Karma 1-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Erbil 1-1 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Karma score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Karma | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Karma sit 4th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Erbil sit 1st (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erbil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Karma | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Karma vs Erbil?
- The Footlab model makes Erbil the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Al-Karma.
- Where and when is Al-Karma vs Erbil played?
- Al-Karma vs Erbil is played on April 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Al Ramadi Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.