Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Jolan SC: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, al-Baṣra (Basra)
The Footlab model makes Al-Jolan SC the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Al Minaa Basra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Jolan SC?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Al Minaa Basra (1,475) and Al-Jolan SC (1,480).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Minaa Basra have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Al-Jolan SC have 1, 1 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 24, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Minaa Basra score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Jolan SC score 0.5 and concede 0.0. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Minaa Basra | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Al-Jolan SC | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 0/2 | 0/2 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Minaa Basra sit 5th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Al-Jolan SC sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Minaa Basra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Jolan SC?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Jolan SC the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Al Minaa Basra.
- Where and when is Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Jolan SC played?
- Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Jolan SC is played on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.