Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Zawraa Stadium, Baghdād
The Footlab model makes Al Zawra'a the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Al-Karma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Al Zawra'a (1,641) and Al-Karma (1,615).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Zawra'a have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Al-Karma have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Al Najaf(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shorta(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 14, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Al Zawra'a win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Al-Karma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Al Zawra'a 0-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Al-Karma 0-0 Al Zawra'a | Iraqi League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Al Zawra'a 2-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Al-Karma 0-0 Al Zawra'a | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al Zawra'a score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Karma score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Zawra'a | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Al-Karma | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Zawra'a sit 13th in Iraqi League (2 points from 2 matches) and Al-Karma sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Karma | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Al Zawra'a | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma?
- The Footlab model makes Al Zawra'a the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Al-Karma.
- Where and when is Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma played?
- Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma is played on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Zawraa Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.