Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueMatchday 18Kick-off on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Zawraa Stadium, Baghdād
The Footlab AI model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Al Zawra'a. The most likely score is 1-1. If Al-Karma wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Al Zawra'a (1,626) and Al-Karma (1,692).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Al Zawra'a
4-3-3- 11M. Cabrera
- 99H. Abdulkareem
- 72Mohamed Sherif
- 15I. Soro
- 10Mohammed Qasim
- 77Ameer Sabah
- 3Masies Artien
- 53Ali Adnan
- 44M. Chobanov
- 25Sajjad Mahdi
- 1Ahmed Basil
Al-Karma
Not enough data to predict the Al-Karma lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 01:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Zawra'a have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Al-Karma have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Al Riffa(home) | 1-1 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Al Nasr(home) | 0-1 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Qatar SC(away) | 1-1 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 4-1 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Al Zawra'a win, 3 draws, 0 Al-Karma wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Al Zawra'a 0-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Al-Karma 0-0 Al Zawra'a | Iraqi League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Al Zawra'a 2-0 Al-Karma | Iraqi League |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Al-Karma 0-0 Al Zawra'a | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al Zawra'a score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Karma score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Zawra'a | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Al-Karma | 1.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Zawra'a sit 6th in Iraqi League (21 points from 13 matches) and Al-Karma sit 1st (30 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
A question about Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Al Zawra'a.
- Where and when is Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma played?
- Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma is played on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Zawraa Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.