Karbala vs Diyala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Karbala Stadium, Karbala
The Footlab model makes Diyala the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Karbala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karbala vs Diyala?
Diyala starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,468 vs 1,337).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karbala have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Diyala have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Baghdad(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Al Hudod(home) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Naft(home) | 2-4 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Baghdad(home) | 1-4 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Karbala win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Diyala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | Diyala 1-0 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Karbala 2-2 Diyala | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Karbala score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Diyala score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karbala | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Diyala | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karbala sit 12th in Iraqi League (2 points from 2 matches) and Diyala sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Diyala | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Karbala | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karbala vs Diyala?
- The Footlab model makes Diyala the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Karbala vs Diyala played?
- Karbala vs Diyala is played on December 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Karbala Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.