Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, Basra
The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Al Minaa Basra. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,446 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil?
Erbil starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,478).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Al Minaa Basra
Not enough data to predict the Al Minaa Basra lineup.
Erbil
Not enough data to predict the Erbil lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Minaa Basra have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Erbil have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Duhok(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Ajman(away) | 4-5 | AGCFF Gulf Champions League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al Minaa Basra wins, 0 draws, 3 Erbil wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Erbil 2-0 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Erbil 3-2 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Al Minaa Basra 1-3 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Erbil 0-1 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Al Minaa Basra 3-0 Erbil | Iraqi League |
| May 5, 2024 | Erbil 1-2 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al Minaa Basra score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Erbil score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Minaa Basra | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Erbil | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Minaa Basra sit 8th in Iraqi League (12 points from 9 matches) and Erbil sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Erbil | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Minaa Basra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
A question about Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erbil the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Al Minaa Basra.
- Where and when is Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil played?
- Al Minaa Basra vs Erbil is played on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.