Al Zawra'a vs Ghaz Al Shamal: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Zawraa Stadium, Baghdād
The Footlab model makes Al Zawra'a the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Ghaz Al Shamal. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Zawra'a vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Al Zawra'a starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (1,651 vs 1,467).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Zawra'a have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Ghaz Al Shamal have 0, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 4-0 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Karbala(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Al Najaf(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Naft(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Zawra'a score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ghaz Al Shamal score 0.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Zawra'a | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0 | 2/3 | 0/3 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Zawra'a sit 2nd in Iraqi League (5 points from 3 matches) and Ghaz Al Shamal sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Zawra'a | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Zawra'a vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
- The Footlab model makes Al Zawra'a the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Ghaz Al Shamal.
- Where and when is Al Zawra'a vs Ghaz Al Shamal played?
- Al Zawra'a vs Ghaz Al Shamal is played on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Zawraa Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.