Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Karbala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Shaab Stadium, Baghdād
The Footlab model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Karbala. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Karbala?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya is a heavy favourite: 1,714 Elo points against 1,337, a 376-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Quwa Al Jawiya have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Karbala have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Newroz(away) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 3-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Baghdad(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Al Hudod(home) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Naft(home) | 2-4 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Al Quwa Al Jawiya win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Karbala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2025 | Karbala 1-4 Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Iraqi League |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-1 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Karbala 0-3 Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Iraqi League |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Karbala 1-2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Iraqi League |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 Karbala | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Karbala vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya on May 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Karbala score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Karbala | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya sit 12th in Iraqi League (3 points from 3 matches) and Karbala sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Karbala | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Karbala?
- The Footlab model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Karbala played?
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Karbala is played on March 5, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Shaab Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.